Fund Manager Market Opinions

Chart 1: Fund manager variance & intensity is at the highest level ever!

NAAIM IntensitySource: Short Side of Long

According to National Association of Active Investment Managers, net long exposure is incredibly high and intensity amongst fund managers has now risen towards record high over the last two month span.

Since various fund managers have the ability to answer the survey with a range of responses ranging from 200% Leveraged Short all the way towards 200% Leveraged Long (and anything in between), what the intensity indicator tries to accomplish is to see how much variance there is among the fund managers taking part in the survey. The less variance there is, the more group  think herding there is going on and usually when everyone is on one side of the boat, it is usually better to be on the other side.

Over the last several weeks, the most bullish managers have been fully invested and highly leveraged on the long side, with exposure ranging from 150% all the way to 170% net long. What is even more interesting, the most bearish managers have not been bearish at all. Their exposure has ranged from 0% (market neutral) to anything from 15% to 50% net long.

In other words, the most bearish fund managers, who are usually acting as short sellers or hedgers, have actually capitulated and turned their portfolios towards the net long side as well.  At least according to this survey, over the last several weeks, even the biggest of bears have thrown in the towel and when everyone is on one side of the boat…

8 replies on “Fund Manager Market Opinions”

  1. […] Market timers are wicked bullish.  (The Short Side of Long) […]

  2. Joe Reeves says:

    The headline says, ‘Fund manager variance and intensity is the highest ever.’ The chart goes back to 2007. Is ever before 2007? if yes how far back and how many investment managers are in this survey? Thank you

  3. Mr John 'Worzel' Pertwee says:

    I thought fund managers had to be 100% invested? I have my thinking head on!

  4. […] Association of Active Investment Managers uses survey data to reflect net long exposure. The Short Side of Long asks whether this means that everyone is on “one side of the […]

  5. […] oversimplify things a good deal, but are still on point as far as their messages are concerned. Fund Manager Market Opinions | Short Side of Long Bubble Watch: Ridiculous Stock Values Edition Reply With […]

  6. […] when we average out fund manager intensity readings over the last couple of months, we can see that managers currently hold one of the most extreme bullish exposures since the surveys […]

  7. […] when we average out fund manager intensity readings over the last couple of months, we can see that managers currently hold one of the most extreme bullish exposures since the surveys […]

  8. […] Association of Active Investment Managers uses survey data to reflect net long exposure. The Short Side of Long asks whether this means that everyone is on “one side of the […]

Leave a Reply